SURVIVOR SHIP BIAS - WHY FAILURES MATTER

This has been an era of data driven thinking. We model machines and our brains to improve our intelligence quotient by relying on "Data" for a guaranteed result. This mechanism is slowly spreading roots to our daily lives as well. We now monitor everything possible - from our sleep cycles to our productivity levels.

But when it comes to certain aspects – our collection of data gets limited to the chosen best. Inadvertently disregarding the not so good ones. The best example to illustrate this is – Lets Open a café thinking. At least once in your life time of visiting and sipping coffee at a café has your entrepreneur mind kicked in and made you think – I should definitely open a café. Look at this one.! I could definitely start a much cooler one.

Pfft! I could do way better.

But what our dear entrepreneur fails to notice is the number of cafes that didn’t do well. Unknowingly eliminating the failed Cafe ventures, may seem optimistic at first. On hindsight, that would give you better understanding of the potential of the starting a cafe at that region. .

That’s where the Survivorship Bias bias comes into picture:

Survivorship Bias is a human tendency to look at the examples of success, while conveniently neglecting the examples of failures, and deriving biased conclusions. Hence the name Survivor ship bias. Focusing on just the survivors.

Now before you even dismissively shrug that this didn’t happen to you, chances are, you have been a victim long while. Yes, In fact we Indians set a prime example. Most of us, choose a career path not based on passion but rather taking examples of Sharma uncle's son, who , somehow manages to ace it. But what the Indian parents ( and not you!,because your opinion never mattered unless you are the youngest child, then you) miss out is that, his could be one of the few who managed to ace it. Taking examples of how many actually became successful engineers, should by now come as no surprise to you.

As the psychologist Daniel Kahneman writes in his book Thinking Fast and Slow -

“A stupid decision that works out well becomes a brilliant decision in hindsight.”

According to me, Survivorship Bias is not something we are consciously aware of doing. Rather, it is the closest kin to our denial mechanism.

Our denial mechanism plays a extremely crucial role. While knowing about Survivorship Bias may not be as helpful as living in denial of an earthquake. Although, the recent times have quite stretched our ability to be in denial about a lot of things. But nonetheless, what we willfully forgo is to look at this issue statistically.

Whilst researching this, a question popped up in my mind: In the area of comparison, what if the rate of success is high and that of failure is low. So statistically, the probability of achieving success must also be high,correct?. Worst case scenario, there is 50% chance I would succeed..as I would fail. So there is nothing wrong in not knowing about the “failures”.

Then again, that’s your denial mechanism speaking. And honestly, It doesn’t matter. But things change if you are trying to improve the odds to succeed. Then, Survivor ship bias is something you need to be aware of.

In short, failures do matter. Having an idea of what could go wrong while trying to achieve success in your chosen area can be beneficial.

If not, at-least you are now aware of one more cool sounding word.

Oh and before you leave:

For those of you who are intrigued, there a plethora of articles that elaborates further on this topic.

You can find the links for one of favorite articles below.

https://youarenotsosmart.com/2013/05/23/survivorship-bias/